Sector Rotation Clock
Economic cycle phase detector · Which sectors lead and lag at each stage
The cycle clock uses macro regime signals (VIX, yield curve, credit spreads, GDP trend) to estimate the current economic phase. Sector leadership is based on historical performance across 30+ economic cycles since 1970. Confidence percentage reflects signal agreement across indicators.
Current Phase
Expansion
Strong GDP, earnings peak, inflation rising
Leading Sectors
▲ Technology▲ Communication Services▲ Energy
Lagging Sectors
▼ Real Estate▼ Utilities
gdp
strong
rates
rising
credit
tightening
earnings
peak
Recovery
GDP picking up, rates low, credit expanding
Leaders
▲ Financials
▲ Consumer Discretionary
▲ Industrials
Laggards
▼ Utilities
▼ Consumer Staples
▼ Healthcare
Expansion
Strong GDP, earnings peak, inflation rising
Leaders
▲ Technology
▲ Communication Services
▲ Energy
Laggards
▼ Real Estate
▼ Utilities
Slowdown
Growth slowing, rates near peak, credit stress
Leaders
▲ Healthcare
▲ Consumer Staples
▲ Energy
Laggards
▼ Financials
▼ Industrials
▼ Materials
Contraction
Recession, Fed cutting, flight to safety
Leaders
▲ Utilities
▲ Consumer Staples
▲ Healthcare
Laggards
▼ Technology
▼ Consumer Discretionary
▼ Financials